Lingo may lose to Nate Landwehr despite his 9-1 professional record because he needs to gain excellent experience. Our predictions and betting picks for UFC Fight Night are detailed below.
Tonight’s UFC Fight Night card at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas, features a three-round featherweight bout between Nate Landwehr and Austin Lingo.
Landwehr faces an unfriendly audience in Dallas, TX, who are rooting for local favorite Lingo, a featherweight contender.
Landwehr is favored by -225 in the UFC odds. As a +190 underdog, Lingo is getting a shot at starting instead of Alex Caceres, who is injured.
For UFC Fight Night: Landwehr vs. Lingo betting advice, feel free to use my free choices.
Landwehr vs Lingo betting preview
Over 600 days will have passed since Lingo last entered an octagon. This is a tall order for the Texan, who was meant to fight Ricardo Ramos a few weeks ago but was also a heavy underdog in that bout. Concerns have been raised concerning Landwehr’s chin as he enters this battle following his brutal conflict with David Onama.
Incredible fortitude was shown by Nate “The Train” after Onama knocked him out. In one of the best fights of 2022, he came back strongly and won by majority decision. Caceres was supposed to be a formidable foe, but now he has an even tougher adversary in Lingo.
Yet, Landwehr must employ various strategies if they hope to prevail. With a 51% success rate, he averages 6.37 significant strikes per minute, 1.3 takedowns every 15 minutes, and 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Landwehr should lean on his wrestling skills to avoid taking any unneeded hits in a fight.
Landwehr has a far different challenge in Lingo, but he’ll still have the support of his home crowd. Following a successful stint on LFA, Lingo has struggled to succeed in the UFC due to inactivity and injuries. Since entering the promotion, he is 1-2, with his most recent victory coming in 2021 against Luis Saldana.
The only way for him to test Landwehr’s chin is to keep the fight standing, as he is a powerful striker. The Texas native scores four critical hits per minute with 42 percent accuracy, and his takedown defense has an 80 percent success rate, which should make Landwehr think twice before opening fire. It’s unclear how he’ll deal with the ring rust, but he’s a threat if Landwehr decides to get physical.
Landwehr should reacclimate Lingo to the UFC and make him uncomfortable with his wrestling. This is a lot to ask of a boxer who has been on the streets for so long in Lingo but has nothing to lose. As fight night draws nearer, the line continues to drift closer, suggesting that an upset is possible in Texas.
Landwehr vs Lingo UFC prediction and best bet
Fight prediction: Landwehr ML
Lingo is a generic brawler type despite being a last-minute replacement with a unique approach. Seeing Landwehr have an out-of-body experience versus Onama is enough to make anyone question his chin, but the important thing was that he was able to recover.
As a one-trick pony who has yet to be as effective in his three UFC fights as he did in the regional circuit, Landwehr has a significant experience advantage over Lingo. The early going of this bout may be dusty. If Lingo can knock out Landwehr in the first round, he can win. That stated, the line continues to decrease for Landwehr.
We’re taking Landwehr in a close fight.
Fight best bet: Pick
Landwehr has won all three of his UFC bouts by decision or early knockout, whereas each of Lingo’s battles has gone the full five rounds.
Lingo is tough enough to last the distance, barring the possibility that he is rusty and open to takedowns. Landwehr’s chin is a weakness, but he’s quick on his feet and can adapt his defense accordingly.
At +100, the best MMA betting bet is on the fight going Over 2.5 rounds, as the battle could go the distance if it doesn’t end in the first round.