The unbeaten Iowa State Cyclones will try to make a statement by beating the Baylor Bears on September 24 at 12:00 p.m. ET at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa. But it won’t be easy for Matt Campbell’s group to do that, because they aren’t as good as they used to be.

Will the Cyclones beat a Bears team that was thought to be one of the favorites to win the Big 12 this year? You could keep reading our Baylor vs. Iowa State article to find out.

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Iowa State vs. Baylor OKBet Sports Betting Picks

Data on Predictive Analytics

• Chance of 60% The money line says that Iowa State wins.
• Chance of 53% Iowa State beats the spread of -3.
• 58% of the Baylor vs. Iowa State game will have more than 45 points.

A Look at Baylor vs. Iowa State

The Spread

One of the most surprising teams in the Big 12 this season has been Iowa State. Breece Hall, Brock Purdy, and Charlie Kolar all went to the NFL last year, taking a lot of talent with them. But in Ames, quarterback Hunter Dekkers has suddenly become a big deal. In three games, he has thrown for 745 yards and eight touchdowns.

Dekkers is good at throwing the ball, and he can also throw it far down the field. And running back Jirehl Brock is a guy to keep an eye on when the team is running the ball. So far this season, he has averaged 5.6 yards per carry. The offense for Iowa State is well-balanced, so they should be able to do well here.

The Baylor defense has been doing well, which shouldn’t be a surprise since head coach Dave Aranda is one of the best defensive coaches in the world. The Bears only let their opponents run for 84.0 yards per game, and BYU could only run for 83 yards, which says a lot about their run defense. To win this game, Iowa State will probably need to throw the ball well.

The offense for Baylor is also well-balanced. Blake Shapen is their starting quarterback, and so far this season he has only made one mistake. You can count on Shapen to take care of the ball and not put it in danger.

In the preseason, the offensive line for Baylor was seen as one of its strengths. This season, that position group has given up six sacks, so right now it’s a question mark. Will McDonald IV, the defensive end for Iowa State, needs to be watched out for by the Bears’ line. McDonald is probably the Cyclones’ best defensive player.

Iowa State’s defense has done a great job of stopping people from running. This season, they’ve given up 60.0 yards on the ground per game. The Cyclones haven’t been tested well on the ground, though. But that doesn’t change the fact that Baylor will probably have to throw the ball a lot.

Iowa State is -3 points behind the spread for this game. Baylor was the favorite at first, but now Iowa State is the favorite. Even though the line is moving, we still think Baylor will keep it close. This game is almost a coin toss, so we’d rather go with the team that wins.

The Over/Under

Both Baylor and Iowa State have played good defense through the first three games, but the Cyclones haven’t faced any explosive offenses yet. We think they’ll have some trouble passing against Shapen, which will force the Cyclones to throw the ball more.

Both of these teams aren’t offensive powerhouses, but both have good quarterbacks, and this total is so low that a couple of big plays will be enough for the Over to win. We’re not taking the Under because of this.

Baylor vs. Iowa State Best Bet Over 45.5

Over 45.5 points is the best bet for this game. The spread is pretty close to a pick-em, so a simple bounce of the ball could change the result. Because the Over is so low, we think it’s the safer bet. Both of these offenses can move the ball on the other.

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